Spokes Public Meeting 19.3.08

Climate Change, Oil Supply and Scottish Cycling Policy


Dave duFeu introduced the speakers and drew attention to the recent Spokes Bulletin No.99 and its contents. The latest SpokesWorker news-sheet was also available.

First speaker David Somervell, Energy and Sustainability Manager at Edin University, spoke on climate change, or Climate Chaos as he preferred to call it, since its effects are largely unpredictable.
He spoke of traditional power supply, centralised power stations burning coal or gas, contrasting with new developments in wind farms which by contrast are smaller and can be local.
Graphs of energy use contrast the developed world, where a relatively small population consumes huge quantities of energy per capita, eg US and Australia 20t CO2 per pers per year, W. Europe 10t/pers/year, and the undeveloped world, where very large populations consume small quantities per capita.
Another graph showed emission projections to 2100, comparing 'do nothing'/business as usual against limiting total CO2 in the atmosphere to 550ppm (limited climate damage) or, better, 450ppm (hopefully sustainable - but who knows?).
At Edinburgh University measures to reduce consumption vary from the basic - fit temperature controls to every radiator - to the large-scale Combined Heat and Power (CHP) schemes built for KB, Pollock Halls and George Sq, where much of the heat normally wasted in energy production is re-used to heat the buildings. A £12m investment, of which £7m comes from the University, saves £1m a year and thus pays for itself in 7 years.

Second speaker Mandy Meikle of Depletion Scotland spoke on 'Peak Oil'. She gave some basic figures on oil consumption - currently 85m barrels per day world-wide, ie 30bn barrels/year - a barrel is 42 gals. 'Peak Oil' means the rate of extraction is no longer increasing, though oil is not about to run out - known reserves are some 30 trillion barrels [?] - enough to wipe out the planet if we burn it all.
The rate of discovery is declining: we now consume 3-4 barrels for every one discovered.
An important concept in discussing energy production, and one which has been surprisingly neglected, is that of Net Energy Return. This refers to the amount of energy which has to be input for a given output. Oil extraction is in itself a heavy user of energy. In the early days of extraction, when the oil was easier to find and came gushing out from underground under its own pressure, 1 unit of energy input brought 100 units of output.
By 1970 this ratio had declined to 25:1 as oil became harder to find and had to be pumped out. Today the ratio is only 10:1.

A table then showed the various rates of return for various sources of energy. Hydro-power is best, at over 10:1. Nuclear is surprisingly low - only 4:1, an important anti-nuclear argument which is almost never deployed.
Biodiesel is even worse - only 3:1, and new sources of oil such as the oil sands in Alberta yield only 2:1. Ethanol is similar, while hydrogen is actually negative, 0.5:1, ie you only get out half the energy you put in to producing it.
Wind power, solar, and coal  vary widely, from 1:1 to 10:1. Gas varies between 5:1 and 10:1.

Mandy gave out a 2-side A4 leaflet listing relevant books, films and websites for further information.
Depletion Scotland is a voluntary organisation with no regular source of funding.

Third up was Kirsty Lewin of the SG Sustainable Transport Team, speaking on Cycling Policy in Scotland, re the above issues.

The Government has been re-organised, and now works to 5 Strategic Objectives - to produce a Scotland which is fairer, cleaner, wealthier etc. A Concordat with Local Authorities requires each to produce, and show evidence of fulfilling, a Single Outcome Agreement (SOA), which will be consulted on - for details, see Bullletin 99, p.3.

The funding for sustainable transport is increased this year to £11m, but this includes other demands - walking, biofuels etc and isn't all for cycling. Most cycle funding will go to Cycling Scotland (CS) and Sustrans but there will be £86K for the Bike Station.

A Cycle Action Plan for Scotland (CAPS) is being initiated, led by CS, with a Board of interested bodies. The Plan will aim to consult non-cyclists to ascertain why they don't cycle and what changes might encourage them to take it up.

The Team has to get involved in a wide range of decision-making, including urban planning. Energy reduction will be a major focus, but this will concentrate on energy efficiency - accepting the car but pressing for smaller more fuel-efficient cars, better/more economically driven and carrying more passengers per journey, as well as a modal shift to cycling and walking for shorter journeys.

Questions and Debate:
The speakers formed a panel and questions came from the substantial audience.

1 Why is the Gov't committed to such a big road spend?
KL suggested many of the schemes have been in the pipeline for years.

2 Why more people don't cycle - it's seen as dangerous. Infrastructure can't change overnight but a long-term strategy could help, eg if cycle lanes were put in every time a road is treated. DdF - Councils have big budgets for road maintenance  but the works are never audited for possible benefits for cycling - this could be addressed in SOAs.

3 Highway engineers have a very traditional approach to their profession and see free flow of vehicles as their goal. They need to be re-educated for sustainable transport. KL said this is already being addressed, and Tom Rye, Napier Univ, spoke of their MSc in Transport Planning which trains roads engineers, mainly the young but not entirely. KL mentioned a sort of Home Zone scheme for a new residential development in Eaglesham, with a radical street layout, but it had been hard work to convince the residents.

There are some 'grassroots' initiatives to make towns more people-friendly, with sustainable towns mooted for Biggar, Dunbar etc.

4 The Climate Change Bill is currently out for consultation - we must respond to it.

5 The programme for more roads, airport expansion, second FRB etc shows the Gov't despite its fine words isn't serious about climate change (This brought a round of applause).

6 DH complained about the banning of cyclists on the A90 and the completely unsuitable cycle route. The current state of play on this was explained, and it was agreed to ask at tomorrow's Cycle Forum whether, and if not why, Edinburgh Council had come up with a proposal, given that the Gov't had shown some inclination to solve the problem.

7 Cycle training in schools currently relies on volunteers and it's a lottery whether it happens or not. Schools in poor areas don't get volunteers.

All agreed that continued pressure on politicians, local and national, was essential if a change of attitudes was to be achieved.

The meeting had to close at 9.30pm.

Peter
20 March 2008