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The Lothian Cycle Campaign

SPOKESWORKER 3rd. July 2001


Spokesworker is an occasional ("roughly monthly") news sheet, with stop-press news of forthcoming events, and of road, traffic and planning matters. It is not automatically sent to all members. A copy is enclosed if we are writing to you anyway, and copies are handed out at meetings of working groups. It is also published here on the website. If you wish to be notified by email of a new Spokesworker or of other major updates to the Spokes website, contact spokes@btinternet.com. Also, you can make sure of getting a paper copy by sending Spokes 10 or so stamped addressed envelopes.  
FOR YOUR DIARY

See also diary in Spokes 79. Other cycling events may be found on the Internet at http://www.scottishcycling.co.uk/events.

Jul 20 Climate Change Critical Mass Ride A mass bike ride around Edinburgh's 'Climate Change Landmarks', to mark the July 14-23 UN climate change negotiations in Bonn. Although scientists suggest that an early 60% emissions cut is vital, the cut being negotiated is just 5.2% - and with exclusions such as aviation and international freight! Meet 5.30pm, Festival Square. Decorations etc welcome. Cmarks8625@aol.com.

Railway Walks - note these are walks, not cycles, organised by Railway Ramblers, who investigate/explore disused rail lines. Many of these lines are existing or potential walk/cycleroutes.

Aug 11 Railway Walk Bathgate-Drumgelloch Meet Bathgate Station 0848 on arrival of 0818 from Edinburgh. 01506.842897.

Aug 23 Railway Walk Bathgate-Livingston Meet Bathgate stn 1748 on arrival of 1718 from Edinburgh. 01324.625816.

Sep 20 Railway Walk Bonnyrigg-Penicuik Meet Waverley 1730 for Lothian bus 82 from N Bridge to Penicuik. 01324.625816.

Aug 15 Rail Passenger Committee for Scotland Public meeting at Dunblane. Your chance to raise issues such as inadequate on-train bike spaces and signing; or the need for safe routes to stations. Time/place from RPCS 0141.221.7760.

Sep 13 Tourism without Traffic conference, Birmingham. Normal fee £200, but some cheap places for voluntary organisation representatives. Details: 020.7582.0128.

Sep 16 Pedal for Scotland Glasgow-Edinburgh annual sponsored ride. 0131.657.4393. www.pedalforscotland.co.uk.

Sep 17-21 VELO-CITY International Cycle Conference Edinburgh & Glasgow. Papers for the conference have already been received from nearly 50 countries! Details: www.velo-city2001.org or 0141.434.1500. Volunteers/skills needed - if you can help contact imaxwell@gn.apc.org or 0131.669.6542.

Sep 22 European Car-Free Day www.eta.co.uk 020.8946.0912. Although quite a few UK councils are participating this year, Edinburgh Council has now reversed its previous intention and will not take part - due, they say, to opposition from Grassmarket Traders and residents (the Grassmarket was to be made car-free for the day), and to insufficient council resources.

Also proposed earth car-free day: www.carfreeday.com. (date?).

SMALL ADS [free in Spokesworker]
ANNOUNCEMENTS / NEWS
Our thanks to Mark Symonds for organising the Gyle event, and Jackie Howlett for central. Some central photos are at www.saferoutes.org.uk/bbpics (thanks, Callum Macdonald). Also, Bikefest photos will soon be at www.bikefest.org.uk/pics
COUNCIL NEWS
If you live or work in another council area... contact the cycle officer [below] to ask how their allocation is to be spent, and to send your suggestions. Also copy to or inform spokes.

East Lothian gets £55K - cycle officer Paul Ince, John Muir House, Haddington EH41 3HA 01620.827661

Midlothian £50K - cycle officer Dave Kenny, Council Offices, Buccleuch St, Dalkeith EH221DJ 0131.271.3492

West Lothian £95K - cycle officer Graeme Malcolm, County Buildings, Linlithgow EH49 7EZ 01506.775296.

We haven't yet seen the exhibition, but its leaflet promises for cyclists and pedestrians: 9 side-road entry treatments similar to Glengyle Terrace; re-alignment of the Bruntsfield Links cycle lane (what does that mean?); and a pedestrian build-out opposite Viewforth (will cyclists be squeezed?). You may also have ideas for other things that need doing here.
SAFETY CONTROVERSY!!!

A recent article in the British Medical Journal [23.12.2000] by Malcolm Wardlaw of Glasgow raised considerable controversy over cyclist safety. The article may be found on the Internet at http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/321/7276/1582. It claims...

[Editor's Note: The last two points above may be inconsistent approaches. Recent Danish research, reported in CTC Cycle-Digest found that an effective way to increase levels of cycling is to give it a visibly much higher priority on the roads - cycle signal control, contra-flow cycle schemes, etc, etc. This visually higher priority results in improved status for cycling, which in turn is found to encourage more people to cycle. Comments we have received from members suggest this has some truth in it - though others have found problems in particular cycle-lane schemes, in line with Malcolm Wardlaw's third point above].

Subsequent to the BMJ article, Malcolm Wardlaw has written to Spokes with related ideas on injury trends, on which he would like any feedback. His letter is printed below. If you have comments or suggestions, please contact him at 92 Drymen Road, Bearsden, Glasgow G61 2SY or M.Wardlaw@btinternet.com.

 

3rd June 2001

Dave,

Since my BMJ paper was published, I have done some more detailed analysis of injury trends for different road users in Britain. This has produced some strange results. I thought it might be useful to pass them onto SPOKES for discussion/reference.

The number of (reported) road accidents does not change much over time, rather, it is the consequences that have declined over the last thirty years. For instance, in 1970, there were 23,000 cycling accidents, which resulted in 400 deaths. In 1999, there was the same mileage of cycling detected as in 1970 (progress!) and again there were 23,000 cycling accidents, but this time there were "only" 170 deaths. On paper, cycling appears to have got much safer over the last thirty years. Is that true? Are we just more sensitive to danger nowadays?

When you compare car occupants with cyclists, you get some really weird results. Going back to 1970, there were 1.74 deaths per 100 reported cyclist casualties, as given above - but there were 1.85 deaths per 100 reported car user casualties.... It's true. In that year, there were about 160,000 people reported injured in car accidents, 3,000 of whom were killed. Eh?

It gets stranger. In 1999, for cyclists there were 0.7 deaths per 100 reported casualties. For car users there were still 0.8 deaths per 100 reported casualties. Across three decades, cyclists have been less likely than car users to be killed in a road accident, and if you compare the improvement over those 30 years cyclists have the better safety record, for their risk of death in a road accident fell by 60%, whereas for car users the risk fell by only 57%.

If you ask Jo/Joelle Bloggs whether they are better off having an accident in a car or on a bike, I doubt whether less than 100% would say they were better off in a car. But it appears that's not so. Cars are far stronger built than thirty years ago, and you have to wear a seatbelt, but despite that, the thin air that surrounds us cyclists has proved to be a more effective safety feature. The illusion of security provided by a car must be self-defeating, and all that sacrifice by crash-test dummies must have been futile. That must be why car insurance is going up so fast - and why traffic often feels more aggressive than it used to.

The above points do not mean that cycling is safer than being in a car, because cyclists get into accidents more frequently than drivers do. But averages can be misleading. Half of cycling is by males under 30, and children don't drive. Such factors bias the comparison. I doubt that cycling here is more dangerous than driving in the average European country, and it is definitely safer than driving in France.

Those who might be tempted to believe that cycle helmets have helped cyclists to get ahead are advised to prepare themselves for dismay. Cyclist injuries have worsened since helmets became popular. We are talking about a 25% jump in deaths after 1994. The attached charts display just how decisive and uncharacteristic has been the deterioration in the injury record [ed - not printed here due to lack of space]. My BMJ paper makes this point, but the charts are too small to do the matter justice. Such a result would fit with helmet users holding a greatly exaggerated estimate of the protection in a road accident (which many undoubtedly do, thanks to poor medical research getting splashed across the media). It is possible some other factor caused the increase in deaths, but I'm damned if I can think what it is.

What does all this mean? Well, I'm not completely sure, which is why I'd be interested to obtain other opinions. Just because cyclist injuries are not as bad as they were does not mean cycling has actually got safer. There is nothing like the number of teenage cyclists actually out on the roads that there used to be. Back in the seventies you could cycle in peace through Glen Coe; you certainly can't do that now. On the other hand, memory is not objective; perceptions are not necessarily accurate. Traffic congestion might not be a bad thing if it slows vehicles down. To some extent, we have retreated from the busiest roads and controlled the danger that way. But perhaps the scare-mongering of the last decade has induced in us all a jitteriness towards traffic? I don't ever recall being much bothered by traffic when I was a teenager back in the late 70s/early 80s, and I never had a crash, so it can't all have been youthful indifference to risk. It has to be said that pedestrian injuries have not improved nearly so much as cyclists', despite which, concerns about walking safety are not so intense as for cycling. So I tend to feel the general perception of greater danger is mostly illusion, provided you stay off fast roads used by trucks. However, the sense of creeping decline in our choices, the increasing need to plan to avoid fast traffic, these perceptions are probably true enough.

What do we do about it? My private belief is we have just one thin chance. If we can make cycling popular enough that there is a general will to improve road conditions, or at least preserve a network of quiet, unhectic routes, then we'll be in with a chance against the truckers and the rat-run brigade. We should avoid making ourselves unpopular with the wider society. We need to eschew presenting cycling as a dangerous activity, especially in the way we dress...... It's wheeled walking really. Hope all this is of value and interest to the SPOKES community.

Kindest regards, Malcolm Wardlaw

 
 
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