The Lothian Cycle Campaign

Please check out the following consultations, and send in your comments to all that concern you. Please also copy your points to Spokes as soon as possible after the consultation begins, so we can take them into account in the Spokes submission.

EDINBURGH ROAD CHARGING

This is an extremely important consultation [see Spokes 82 p3] and we very strongly urge all members to take part. It starts June 12 and ends 31 July, and is open to anyone who lives in, works or visits Edinburgh and/or the Lothians. If the Council gets public approval, charging should provide the traffic restraint which most experts agree is likely to be the only effective route to reduced congestion. It will also provide huge sums for public transport and cycling measures (in Edinburgh and the Lothians) to encourage use of these alternatives. If the council gets approval, the government will also put in significant funds to help put more of these measures in place even before charging begins.

The consultation is a major battle with implications across Scotland and indeed the UK, as many other councils and politicians are waiting to see whether Edinburgh goes ahead. If the plans fall through, the whole cause of traffic reduction throughout Britain will suffer a serious setback. Already the Conservatives are talking of a 'toll tax', and even the local Lib Dems, despite their national environmental and transport policies, oppose the council plans.

Of course, you may not agree with everything in the proposals, or you may have additional comments. We very much hope, however, that most Spokes members will give the plans strong overall support, and we urge you to do so. If you have additional comments which you would like spokes to consider making also, please send them to us as soon as possible after 12 June.

The consultation leaflet is available from 12 June from council offices [including 1 Cockburn Street] and all public libraries, on the council website www.edinburgh.gov.uk/traffic, or 0800.232323.

PHYSICAL ACTIVITY TASK FORCE

This important government consultation on a draft physical activity strategy for Scotland runs from June 6 to Sep 13. The background is in Spokes 82 [p7], but we don't know the content of the report until it is launched on 6 June. The PATF was the outcome of the government's Public Health White Paper, to which Spokes made a significant contribution. We will be particularly interested to see whether the PATF draft proposals...

a attempt to meet the very ambitious targets on adult moderate physical activity which were set in the White Paper [Spokes 82]

b like the White Paper, put equal emphasis on promoting moderate physical activity through everyday walking/cycling as by sport

The PATF web site includes the following advance comments...

"Let's make Scotland More Active is not a one-off report. This is about supporting change. This report presents the conclusions and recommendations from the first stage of the process. We looked at:
 

• Research about active and inactive people in Scotland
• The links between physical activity and health
• The social and economic benefits of inactivity; and
• Evidence about the best ways to bring about change

The report and a response form will be available from 0870 606 5566 or Stationery Office Bookshop, 71 Lothian Road, EH3 9AZ [presumably free?], or at www.show.scotland.nhs.uk/sehd/PATF.

See also diary page. Other cycling events may be found on the Internet at http://www.scottishcycling.co.uk/events.

June 16 Meadows BikeFest 12-5. Stalls, competitions, live music, bikes on sale from Bike Workshop, fun for all the family. Also rides to the festival, all starting 11am, from.... Davidsons Mains Safeway car park; Leith Scottish Executive main entrance; Milton Link Big W car park; Colinton Spylaw park. For more info about rides or BikeFest, or to offer help: www.bikefest.co.uk or 0131.538.0148. There is also a special Sustrans pedalling picnic to BikeFest from the Forth Bridges Hotel - you must register in advance - details 0131.624.7660.

June 15-23 Bike Week Bike Workshop events 07789.367010...

Sat 15, 11-1, £2, Bike Decoration for BikeFest competition

Mon 17, 8.30-11, £1, Pub Bike Quiz, Castle Bar, Johnston Terrace

Tue 18 & Wed 19, 9pm, £0, Bike Films, Forest Café, Grassmarket

Wed 19, 7-9, £2, Bike Art workshop, materials provided

Sat 22, 6pm, £?, Castlecliff party - music, food, games, bikes

Daily 17th-21st, 12-2pm, Bike repair workshop

Sat 15, Sat 22, 1-4pm repair/maintenance volunteer session

June 19 SPOKES CITY CHAMBERS BIKE BREAKFAST. Sustrans Director John Grimshaw now expected to attend and possibly give speech some time after 9am. Also probable speech from Cllr Andrew Burns, Edinburgh Transport Convener.

June 17 Friends of Meadows & Bruntsfield Links Sciennes Primary School, 7.30. Possible opportunity to raise any Meadows cycle route problems. www.friendsofthemeadows.freeserve.co.uk

June 20 Living Streets (Pedestrians Assn) discussion meeting/ AGM, 7.30, Friends Meeting House, Victoria Terrace. 229.3200.

June 22 Scotland Delivers? Fabian conference on policies for the second Parliament. Includes workshops on environment/transport and on health. £15. scotland@fabian-society.org.uk 0131.559.1506.

June 24 Speed Conference, London. Institution of Civil Engineers. Spokes can have one free delegate. Dave has info 01506.670165.

June 24 Climate Change conference, Glasgow. FOE Scotland. Good range of expert speakers. Workshops include transport emissions. events@foe-scotland.org.uk 0131.554.9977, Jo Heron. Full price £100. Voluntary organisation rates also available.

Sep 19-20 Transport & Devolution conference, with Transport Minister Iain Gray MSP and government adviser David Begg. Details - mail@stsg.org 0790.973.5224. Spokes will qualify for reduced rates for one or possibly more delegates.

Sep 22 Car-Free Day [In Town Without My Car] - see Spokes 82 and spokesworker 15.5.02. There will probably be a Spokes stall at the George St event - let's make it an exciting one! - get in touch if you can help or have ideas, especially as the AA and Evening News dub the event a 'gimmick' [EN 14.5.2002]. For a copy of the EN article/editorial, contact campaigns@transformscotland.org.uk.

• A Spokes member plans to cycle to Newcastle (from Linlithgow) in September and would like advice from anyone who has cycled to Newcastle recently. ctfowler@musicpublishing.demon.co.uk

The CD of Velo City [Spokes 82, p8] is in fact free to everyone who helped as a volunteer at the conference. If you've not received yours, email imaxwell@gn.apc.org or phone Ian 669.6542. Any other Spokes member can purchase a copy for £5 instead of the usual £10. Send cheque payable to Spokes.

This is the name for the proposed development on the huge site now occupied by the old Royal Infirmary, between Lauriston Place and the Meadows. The developers say there will be cycle routes throughout, but the exhibition is rather sketchy. There must be well-defined/designed routes from Lauriston to North Meadow Walk at the south-east and south-west of the site, and a good east-west route. The residential area should be designed as a Home Zone. The developers could also be asked to improve access to the site - e.g. upgrades on or to the Meadows. There must be no repeat of the Lothian Road developments where the Council said there must be a cycle route from canal to West End, then completely failed to get this properly included in the detailed plans for each part of the site.

Some details are available at www.qmile.com or from 07775 830541, and there is an exhibition as follows...

June 4-7, 9am-9pm, Southside Centre, 117 Nicolson St

June 10-13, 9am-9.30pm, Tollcross Primary School (Comm Ed)

June 17-19, 10-8, Morningside Library

June 20-21, 10-5, Fountainbridge Library.

Consultation ends June 21. Details from 0131.449.7296 or www.sepa.org.uk/nws/areas/lothian_borders.htm. The plan seems at rather general a level, and as far as broken glass on paths and roads is concerned there appears to be no consideration to introducing or encouraging the bottle-return deposits which work well in some other countries and used to be common in Britain.

This National Planning Policy Guideline document will provide government guidance to councils and developers on location and layout of new housing. There are references to locating and designing to encourage use of bike, walking and public transport, but you may have ideas on how these sections could be tightened up further, or you may have other comments on the draft guidance.

The consultation draft is available from 0131.244.7543 or at www.scotland.gov.uk/planning. Comment by 28 Jun to the address in the document or email nppg3.consultation@scotland.gsi.gov.uk.

"Depletion is an easy concept to grasp. Think of a pub full of happy people. Think of their pleasure at the first sip from a full glass. Think of the frowns that begin to cross their faces when their glasses are half-empty. They know they have drunk more than is left. It is the turning point. Watch them savour the last drops. While they can order another round of drinks, they know in the back of their minds that eventually closing time will come when there are no more to be had. That is the meaning of depletion. We need to know how big each glass - or oilfield - is, and we need to think of closing time, and judge how many oilfields are left to find."

- Colin J. Campbell of the Oil Depletion Analysis Center

What does this mean for sober people in the real world?

North Sea oil production is in decline. UK oil production fell from an average of 2700 million barrels per day during 1999 down to 2300 million barrels per day through 2001. This is a fall of 15% in the last two years. This decline has been predicted and is inevitable. The prediction of the decline of oil production is based on some simple assumptions...

• You have to find oil before you can produce it
• Production has to mirror discovery after a time lag
• The larger fields which are easily found and exploited first give a natural discovery peak, this peak in discovery then leads to a peak in production after a time lag.

The problem of depletion is global. 70% of world oil comes from fields discovered before 1973.

In the USA discovery peaked around 1930, and despite the huge new prospects in Alaska US production peaked in 1971. Norway appears to have peaked in 2000. Canada peaked in 1973, Iran in 1973, Libya in 1970. Some of the countries still to reach a peak in oil production are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Venezuela, and Kuwait. Only about 30% of the world's oil production is from the few countries which are still possibly able to increase their production substantially.

The peak in total world production is not yet clear, but could happen before 2010. High oil prices cause economic recession which in turn reduces demand for oil. It is possible that we will be at a plateau of production for some years before the onset of substantial decline. The practical consequences of this can be seen as major oil companies are unable to maintain production growth, they can only maintain the growth that shareholders demand by buying other oil companies. This year Enterprise oil was bought by Shell in order to meet its production growth target. Actions speak louder than words.

To add to the obvious problems above, public information on the subject is sadly lacking. The Oil and Gas Journal provides the most commonly used public data on oil reserves. As many as 64 countries reported unchanged reserve numbers in 2001, completely ignoring ongoing discovery and production. Some OPEC countries have reported substantial reserve increases without any obvious material evidence. In OPEC, production quotas are allocated in proportion to reported reserves: there are big incentives to exaggerate.

Oil is not going to run out anytime soon, but the rate of oil production is likely to fall within the next 10 years and we will all have to learn to adapt to a situation where our oil consumption falls year on year after a century of growth year on year. The economic effects will be substantial. Transport and agriculture are heavily dependent upon oil, alternative fuels are still at an early stage of development. It is likely that constraints on the supply of oil will cause recession and increases in unemployment. However it could turn out to be a good thing in some ways, for example the impact of climate change may be reduced.

The countries, towns and individuals who already make an effort to minimise their own oil use will reap the benefits of a more sustainable lifestyle, since they will be less vulnerable to increased prices and supply disruption.

But don't take my word for it: "The rig count over the last 12 years has reached bottom. This is not because of low oil price. The oil companies are not going to keep rigs employed to drill dry holes. They know it but are unable and unwilling to admit it. The great merger mania is nothing more than a scaling down of a dying industry in recognition that 90% of global conventional oil has already been found" - Goldman Sachs - August 1999.

[Information provided by the Association For The Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) and ODAC (oil depletion analysis center) is gratefully acknowleded in the preparation of this note. For further information see the Newsletter of ODAC on the website of LB-Systemtechnik GmbH at www.energiekrise.de, and click on ASPO news].

The Scottish Cycling Development Project (SCDP) wish to appoint two Cycling Development Officers, one based in Glasgow and the other Edinburgh. Both posts are for 37 1/2 per week though it may be possible to appoint a well qualified person on a part time basis. The successful applicant will promote cycling throughout Scotland and will work with Cycle Groups, Local Authorities, The Scottish Executive, Schools, Community Groups, Health Boards and the general public. Good communication skills are essential for this work. Applicants must be able to work effectively with a minimum supervision. The development and delivery of cycle training will be a major element in both posts. Other areas of operation include the promotion of Pedal for Scotland, encouraging the public to gain access to the countryside by bicycle, preparing information for posting on our web site, gathering data for the cycling What's On guide. For this work basic computer skills are necessary.

Salary will be in the range of £15,000-£19,000 depending on experience. The contract will give employment to September 2003 subject to satisfactory performance over a trial period of 3 months. If you are interested please write to the SCDP, The Velodrome, Meadowbank Stadium, London Road, Edinburgh EH7 6AD for more information and an application form. The cut off date for applications is Tuesday 11 June 2002.